Now, President Jonathan is set to seek
a re-election even though he has yet to
publicly declare so. The North is
enraged by this.
That it has been out of
power for this long is irritating enough
for the zone’s oligarchs.
The 53 post-independence years of Nigeria’s
political history have witnessed a few
catastrophic events that have threatened her
very existence as a nation. But this country
colonised by the British and forced together by
Lord Lugard in his 1914 amalgamation which
brought together two strange bedfellows under
a marriage of convenience has always teetered
on the edge of the precipice. Since the decade
after independence in 1960 and many years
after, the country has not had a moment of
respite from elements in the union who have
constantly threatened separation with
devastating consequences. Since
independence, Nigeria’s stormy socio-political
history has shown that perhaps it was a bad
idea to have brought together disparate ethnic
behemoths that have nothing in common. Little
wonder that shortly after the British left, cracks
that revealed the mistake of 1914 began to
emerge. Even the action and utterances of
political players from both sides of the divide
have constantly reminded us that the union
may not end a story book ‘’happy ever after’’
fairytale. Nonetheless, Nigeria has survived 53
tragic years in a union sustained by the blood
of citizens.
The struggle for political dominance among the
major ethnic groups in the first decade of
independence culminated in the civil war. That
bloody era in Nigeria’s chequered history was
perhaps the greatest threat to the country’s
unity. But more tragedies were to follow. Most
of the threats that revealed the farce of Lugard
have been the result of the struggle for power
among the major ethnic groups and their
political elites. But it is not only politicians that
have pushed the country to the brink. The
military, which ruled Nigeria for most of its
post-independence years, has also caused
tensions through its violent obsession with
power. The coup and counter-coups were the
catalysts in this deadly power game. The coups
and subsequent power play among the military
elite created widespread mistrusts and
suspicion among the nation’s ethnic groups.
For example, the dominance by Northern
military officers was the reason why their
Southern counterparts have complained of
political dominance by the North in recent
years.
The deep mistrust created by Northern
dominance of political power during the
military years led to the Gideon Orkar’s bloody
coup of 1990. The coup planned and executed
by mostly minority officers almost put paid to
the union. The coup sought to forcefully excise
some parts of the North from the entire
country. That coup heralded Niger Delta
agitation for resource control which later
turned violent many years after. The Orkar
coup also revealed that the ghost of ethnic
mistrust which nearly tore the country apart
with the civil war had not been laid to rest after
all. But the Ibrahim Babangida administration
which was the target of the coup brutally
suppressed it by executing many of its
masterminds. However, the grievances were
not addressed. Now the agitation for resource
control which was at the heart of the violent
coup is one of the reasons this union may soon
hit the rock. Three years after the Orkar’s coup,
Babangida who had taken the country on a
political merry go-round did the unimaginable.
His annulment of the June 12 election won by
the late business mogul, M.K.O. Abiola threw
the country into turmoil. The violence and
tension that followed threatened the country’s
unity. There were insinuations at the time that
the North as represented by the military
establishment wanted to perpetuate hegemony
over the rest of the country. There were calls
by Nigerians that the country should break up
once and for all. Politicians also led the
agitation for the country to split if the
annulment was not reversed. Again, one could
imagine a tragic replay of the events that led to
the civil war. I personally witnessed Nigerians
who pack their belongings and travel to their
ethnic bases. Even when Babangida and his
cabal pushed the country to the brink the
country held on-albeit on a thin rope. The
brutality and repression of the Abacha years
and the scheming to make him a life president
brought Nigeria to another political standstill.
The country became a pariah nation. The cry to
divide the nation grew louder. But still the
country held on. Nigeria was saved from an
imminent collapse by the sudden death of Gen.
Sani Abacha. Several years after the military
left, power struggle among the nation’s major
ethnic groups has heightened tensions in the
country.
The 2011 presidential election that produced
the incumbent President again brought Nigeria
to the edge. Now, the race for 2015 has yet
again opened up the possibility of a split.
There are serious reasons to believe that
President Goodluck Jonathan may be Nigeria’s
last president. Those so-called nationalists who
have expressed optimism that this country
may yet pull through another violence
engendered by power struggle do not
appreciate the extent of the dynamics of power
play that is at the heart of Nigeria’s political
trajectory. Ethnic mistrust has been amplified
over the years by the country’s political elite. It
may reach a crescendo in 2015. Now, the die
seems to have been cast. And this is not even
about the rivalry between the opposition
parties. This is about one zone’s quest to
reclaim power by all means necessary. It is also
about the struggle to control the nation’s oil
resources. Even if the split does not happen in
2015, the year may be the beginning of an end.
It is not conspiracy theory that the US-National
Intelligence Council had predicted Nigeria’s
split. The fears are real.
Now, President Jonathan is set to seek a re-
election even though he has yet to publicly
declare so. The North is enraged by this. That it
has been out of power for this long is irritating
enough for the zone’s oligarchs. For them, it
will be unthinkable that they may not have
power in 2015 (or even beyond). Their
agitation is already heating up the polity.
Already, some of the zone’s politicians have
begun to sound the drumbeats of war. But in
the Fourth Republic, other ethnic groups seem
to have found a voice in collectively
challenging the North’s dominance of power
since independence. That is why the minority
groups of the Niger Delta has said Jonathan
must continue beyond 2015. The Ijaw seem to
have “wise-up” and cannot imagine the
situation where another ethnic group will
return to power and control ‘’their oil’’. This will
be a major divisive factor in 2015 and beyond.
Personally, I see the struggle for resource
control as a factor in Nigeria’s probable
collapse. Beyond the power struggle that may
make Jonathan Nigeria’s last president, the
incumbent seems to have lost control of the
country. Many have accused his presidency of
deliberately whipping up ethnic mistrust. Add
this to Boko Haram, insecurity, massive
corruption, and uncontrolled oil theft and the
picture of an imminent crack becomes visible.
Gseven Empire 